Insiders

What Insiders shows

Polymarket is a prediction market, and every trade on it is public, down to the account that made it. Insiders watches a pool of those accounts. When one places a bet, the feed records it straight away, before anyone knows the result, and grades it later: sports bets against the price at kickoff and the final result, everything else against where the market stood 24 hours after the bet. Other venues, like Kalshi, do not show who is trading, so Polymarket is the only source.

The switch at the top picks “Sports”, “Events” (politics, economics, crypto, weather and more) or “All”. The feed lists only open bets, and a sports bet leaves it once the game starts. It is Pro, and marked Beta.

Read a bet

Pick a bet in the list and the panel beside it opens with a verdict, a score and the reasons behind them.

• The score, 0 to 99, weighs the trader's record against the closing price, how unusually large this bet is for them, and how far the price has moved since they bought. 88 and up reads “TAKE”, 75 to 87 “LEAN”, and anything lower “PASS”.
• The reasons under it name what moved the score, like “Beats the close +1.2% over 400 graded”, “3.0x their usual stake” or “Out-of-sample sport”. Read these before the number.
• The price is in cents. 42.0¢ means the market gives it about a 42% chance, and each share pays $1 if it wins; the feed shows it as +138 beside it. A yellow “!” means the price is now more than half a percent above what the trader paid.
• Where to bet it, on sports bets that match a game on the odds board, lists the same side at each book after its fees, next to Polymarket's own price. The best is highlighted.
• The tabs: “Market” has the price history and the order book; “Trader” has their return, win rate, profit, volume and bet count; “Trade history” lists their last 50 bets we recorded, losses included.

Each trader carries a badge for how much evidence stands behind them:

When no tracked trader currently qualifies, the feed can be empty. It then shows the traders closest to qualifying and a radar of large bets being tracked, both marked as unverified.

The settings

The stake is a flat share rather than a Kelly amount on purpose. An insider bet has no fair price to measure an edge against, so there is no edge to size from. Treat it as a spending limit. Score band, category and sport filters sit in the same panel.

What our own tracking found

We built Insiders to answer one question: does copying the best traders make money? This is the honest answer so far.

• Public track records overstate skill. Leaderboards rank whoever has won the most, and Polymarket's record of a trader's closed positions mostly keeps the winners: a winning bet gets cashed in and leaves a record, a losing one often just expires. Pulled that way, the traders we looked at won 64% of bets priced to win about 48% of the time, and some showed win rates near 100%. No real group of bettors does that. It is why Insiders shows only records we built ourselves, from bets recorded before the result, losses included.
• Tracked from the moment they bet, the edge was small. Once we recorded bets as they were made, traders as a group beat the closing price, but only by around half a percent. Polymarket's trading fee is about 2% of the stake at typical prices, which ate that edge and more, and a sportsbook's margin costs a follower about the same.
• What edge there was sat in longshots and early bets, placed well before the start, not in the favorites where most of the money goes. Even that pocket shrank the longer we watched.
• Copying blindly did worse than the traders did. A follower usually gets a worse price than the trader got, and paying up after the price had already moved is where copiers lost most.
• A high score has not meant a better result. In our own replays, taking the top-scored bets each day lost money. Use the score to sort and filter, not as a forecast.

Watch out: nobody in this feed is a sure thing, however good their record looks. Never size a bet from Insiders as if it were an edge you had measured, and never chase a price that has already run past the trader's.

What it is good for

• A second opinion. If a trader with a long, proven record is on the other side of a bet you like, look at it again.
• Seeing where money is going. A big bet can move the market. Check the same game in the +EV Finder or on the Odds Screen to see whether a book is still on the old price.
• Price shopping. “Where to bet it” often shows a book paying more for the same side than Polymarket does, after fees.
• Learning. A trader's history shows how real bettors size and time their bets, losing runs included.

Do it in BreadSync

Insiders

Live bets from prediction-market traders we track, each with the trader's record since we started watching and the best price for the same side.

1. 1.Keep the starting settings: "Standouts", "Curated" and "Building+". Pick "Sports" or "Events" at the top.
2. 2.Open a bet. Read the reasons under the score and the "Trader" tab before the number itself.
3. 3.If you take it, check "Where to bet it" first. Skip it if a yellow "!" shows the price has moved past the trader's.
4. 4.In Settings, set a small "Bankroll" under "Stake sizing" and keep the fraction at ¼ or ⅛. Place the bet, then click "Add to My Bets".

Open Insiders Pro · 7-day free trial

“Alerts” at the top sends a desktop notification when a new bet matching your filters arrives, while the page is open. Prediction markets are not legal everywhere, and event bets are usually only available there, so check what you can use where you live before you sign up for one.