Alternative methods
Arbitrage betting
When two books disagree enough about a game, you can bet every outcome and make a small profit whichever side wins. Here is how to spot one, size it, find it in BreadSync, and what can turn a sure thing into a loss.
What an arb is
Every price carries an implied chance: +150 is 40% and -130 is about 56.5%. At one book, the two sides of a game always add up to more than 100%. The extra is the book's margin, and it is why betting both sides normally costs you a little: the hold.
Take each side at a different book, wherever it pays most, and now and then the total drops under 100%. That is a negative hold, called an arbitrage or arb. Bet every outcome in the right proportions and every result pays back more than you staked. You are not predicting anything; you are collecting the gap between two books' prices.
A worked example
Book A has one team at +150. Book B has their opponent at -130.
| Bet | Price | Implied chance |
|---|---|---|
| Team at Book A | +150 | 40.00% |
| Opponent at Book B | -130 | 56.52% |
| Together | 96.52% |
96.52% is 3.48 points under 100%, so this is an arb. To be paid the same whoever wins, give each bet its share of the total in proportion to its implied chance. With $1,000 to put down: $1,000 × 40.00 ÷ 96.52 = $414.41 at Book A, and the other $585.59 at Book B.
| Book | Bet | Stake | Back if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book A | Team +150 | $414.41 | $1,036.04 |
| Book B | Opponent -130 | $585.59 | $1,036.04 |
Either way $1,036.04 comes back from $1,000 staked: $36.04 profit, 3.6%, whoever wins. Round to whole dollars, $414 and $586, and you make $35.00 or $36.77 depending on the result. Arbs this wide are rare. Most are under 2% and last minutes, so on $1,000 you are usually looking at $5 to $20.
Do it in BreadSync
Arbitrage Calculator
Type two or three prices and a total stake. A negative margin is an arb; it shows the stake for each leg and the profit. It loads with this example.
Find arbs in the Low Hold view
The Low Hold view ranks every pair by what it costs you. An arb is a row where the cost has turned into a profit: it shows a plus sign where a normal row shows a minus. The pair above would read about +3.6%, with the dollar profit for your bet size beside it.
Do it in BreadSync
Odds Screen · Low Hold view
Leave Primary Book empty and it lists every hedge across your books, ranked by hold, so the arbs sit at the top.
- 1.Keep the view on "Single book". Leave "Primary Book" empty: if a book is picked, clear it with the × so it reads "Select Book". It then shows every hedge across your books, not just the pairs at one book.
- 2.In "Books", tick only books where you have an account and money. An arb you cannot place at both books is no use to you.
- 3."Bet Size" is the stake on each row's first leg; the other leg is sized to match.
- 4.In "Markets", add "Player Props". Props now include alternate lines and more books, exchanges among them, and many arbs turn up there.
- 5.Set "Sort" to "%". Rows with a plus sign at the top are arbs. Place both legs at the stakes shown, then log them.
If a book shows a different price from the row, type the new price into that leg and the stakes and result update. A small amber badge like “2% FEE” on a leg means that venue charges a fee; the row already counts it, so place the exact stake shown. A red “!” is a warning worth reading before you bet: it marks books with the same owner, or a soccer pair a draw would sink.
A prop arb has to be the same player, the same stat and the same number at both books: Over 24.5 points at one, Under 24.5 at the other. Over 24.5 against Under 25.5 is a different bet, not an arb.
Watch out: a row showing a big profit, say over 5%, usually means a wrong price, a line one book has not updated, or two different markets. Books cancel bets on obvious errors, which leaves your other leg on its own. Check both slips carefully or skip it.
Three-way markets
A soccer moneyline, and the “Moneyline (Regulation)” market in hockey and other sports with overtime, has three outcomes: home, draw and away, settled when regulation ends. An arb there needs all three, usually at three books. The same rule applies: add the three implied chances, and under 100% is an arb.
| Bet | Price | Implied chance | Stake of $300 | Back if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home at Book A | +145 | 40.82% | $123.39 | $302.30 |
| Draw at Book B | +250 | 28.57% | $86.37 | $302.30 |
| Away at Book C | +235 | 29.85% | $90.24 | $302.30 |
Together 99.24%, so $300 returns $302.30 whatever happens: a $2.30 profit, 0.77%. That is a typical size. The Low Hold view pairs these as three-leg rows, and the calculator takes the third price in “Side 3”.
Watch out: never pair a three-way price with a two-way one. A hockey team at +155 on a regulation line and their opponent at +151 on the normal moneyline looks like a huge arb, but if regulation ends level the first bet loses, and the other can still lose in overtime. BreadSync keeps regulation lines in their own market for this reason. See three-way line.
Exchange fees
Exchanges and prediction markets are where many arbs come from, because their prices move differently from the big books. Instead of a margin built into the price, some charge a fee, and it comes out of your profit:
| Venue | Fee | Even money pays like |
|---|---|---|
| Novig | None | +100 |
| ProphetX | 2% of net winnings, nothing on a loss | about -102 |
| Kalshi | A trading fee when you buy, largest near 50¢ | about -107 |
| Polymarket | A trading fee when you buy, largest near 50¢ | about -105 |
A 1% arb with a fee leg can be no arb at all. The Low Hold view already takes these fees off before it ranks a row. If you work one out by hand, take the fee off the price first. Check each venue's current fee page too, since fees change.
What can go wrong
An arb is only locked in once every leg is accepted at the price you planned. These are the ways it comes apart:
- The price moves before your second bet. In the example, say you place $414.41 at +150 and the -130 moves to -145 before you get to it. To cover the same $1,036 you now need $613.16 on that side, and the profit falls from $36 to about $8. A bigger move is a loss. Place first the leg most likely to move or be cut, usually the price that is out of line with every other book, then place the other straight away. Hedging covers the order.
- A book limits or voids a leg. It may accept less than you asked, or cancel a bet it calls a wrong price. Size the other leg to what was actually accepted. If a bet is refused or cut down has the steps.
- The books settle the market differently. Two-way hockey moneylines include overtime and the shootout; regulation lines do not. Books differ on a player who does not play or leaves early, so one prop leg can be void while the other stands. Baseball pitchers and tennis retirements have their own rules (Picking games). Read both books' rules for a market before you arb it.
- Exchanges have small limits. An exchange price is only good for what is resting at that price, sometimes a few dollars. The rest fills at worse prices. Check how much it will take before you place the other leg.
- Account health. Books notice customers who bet only when their price is out of line, and arbing gets an account limited faster than promo play does. Arb at books whose welcome offers you have finished, and think twice before risking a book that still sends you promotions. If a book limits you
Put in perspective: an arb makes a percent or two of what you stake, while one bonus bet conversion can make $60 or more. Work the offers first; arbs are for the money that is left over afterwards.