Who should I start this week? (Week 3)

How the projection is built

Sportsbooks post an over/under on each player's passing, rushing and receiving yards, catches and touchdowns, and a price on whether they score. Strip the bookmaker's margin out of those prices and you have the market's own expectation for every stat. Sharper books count for more, and a book whose line sits far from the rest is ignored.

Those expectations are then scored the way fantasy leagues score them: a point per 25 passing yards and per 10 rushing or receiving yards, 6 per rushing or receiving touchdown, your league's passing touchdown and interception values, and 1, 0.5 or 0 per catch for PPR, half-PPR or standard. Kickers are scored from their kicking points line.

The percentage is how often the recommended player should outscore the other, allowing for how much each position swings week to week. Below 55% it is a toss-up, and the tiebreaker is the usual one: take the safer floor when you expect to win your matchup, and the bigger ceiling when you need an upset.

What it does not cover

Team defenses, fumbles, two-point conversions and yardage bonuses are left out. Every rostered quarterback, running back, receiver, tight end and kicker is searchable; anyone who cannot be compared says why (game played, bye, injured, or no lines yet). Midweek, many players have only a touchdown price posted, so their yards and catches are estimated from it and marked with ~. Lines update every couple of hours and more often on game day.

Want the lines behind these projections, side by side at every book we track? See what BreadSync Pro does.